A Warm Fall Is Forecast for the Great Lakes. Could Lake Erie’s Fall Walleye Pattern Run Later?
Fall walleye season is getting closer on Lake Erie, but the lake is still holding onto plenty of summer warmth.
As of September 16, National Weather Service readings have Lake Erie at 75°F off Toledo, 73°F off Cleveland and 73°F off Erie. Buffalo is also reporting 73°F.
And if you’re waiting for the lake to cool down, NOAA’s longer-range forecast is worth watching.
The Climate Prediction Center’s September-October-November outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Great Lakes and Northeast. NOAA is also watching a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to become a major part of the weather pattern heading into fall and winter.
Does that mean the fall walleye bite is going to be late?
Not necessarily.
A seasonal outlook doesn’t mean every day will be warmer than normal. In fact, NOAA’s latest Week 3-4 outlook for September 26 through October 9 shows plenty of uncertainty across our part of the country. We can still get strong cold fronts and stretches of chilly weather even during an overall warmer-than-normal fall.
That’s why the actual conditions on Lake Erie will be much more important than the calendar over the next several weeks.
Watch the water temperatures from one end of the lake to the other. Watch for several cool nights in a row rather than one chilly morning. Keep an eye on strong fronts and wind events that can mix the lake and change temperatures quickly.
And, of course, watch the bait.
The Western, Central and Eastern basins don’t cool at exactly the same rate, either. What’s happening around the islands could look quite a bit different from Cleveland, Ashtabula or Erie as we get farther into fall.
Right now, the numbers tell us Lake Erie is still warm, and NOAA says the larger fall pattern has a better chance of running warm as well.
Whether that actually pushes the fall walleye pattern later remains to be seen.
For anglers, the next few weeks of water temperature data may tell us a lot.
